Intel Fab (was China Rising)

re: recent Intel announcement (for 22nm).

Correct, Intel current 22nm work will stay in the U.S. What’s frightening is it was even a close call and in the end was an executive override of a consensus analysis of what arguably was a better economic outcome for the company and shareholders (at least on paper, setting aside politics). Similar words have been heard from John Chambers, the Cisco CEO, as well as Oracle. On the current slope (declining U.S. technical ability, rising Asian), we can kiss it goodbye in 5 or so years. This isn’t Japan in the 80s where they thought they could compete with cartelized industry (and research). Disregarding the dictatorship (which can certainly screw things up – even faster than the U.S. Congress.. but most of the CCP leadership are soviet-style-ruthless but well educated engineers – so they are numerate – and appreciate the difference between science and faith-based non-science, unlike 99% of U.S. politicians) the mostly-independent provinces in China are like the U.S. in the late 1800s, early 1900s. We were pirating IPR from the Brits, growing like crazy, driving for quantity over quality, local fiefdoms distributing power and justice, etc.

Patriotism and love-of-country can have little place in the market (if a society wants to thrive and maximize the wealth and welfare of its citizens). About all that can/should change this is a declaration of war, embargo, or sanctions. We’re attempting to tighten “dual-use” export of high-tech goods to China – which is having the perverse effect of driving decisions for offshore work. Intel could well be criticized for exporting technology to China if they leave any (next-generation) work here. Even though all the process equipment is built offshore. One way to avoid the “deemed export” argument and misery is just not do the work in the U.S.

Yet another domestic agency (Department Of Commerce) that should be asking local communities if they (1) value their product and processes, (2) are willing to pay their bill.

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